NBA Draft 2026 results: Grades, analysis, fits for every first-round pick

The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NBA Draft.

The 2026 draft is underway — taking place over two days — and The Athletic’s draft expert Sam Vecenie and front-office insider John Hollinger are analyzing each pick as it happens.

Explore Vecenie’s scouting summary from the 2026 NBA Draft Guide, Hollinger’s team fit and more below.

1. Washington Wizards

AJ Dybantsa | 6-9 | 19 years old

Dybantsa has better physical tools entering the NBA than any wing I’ve seen in a while. His ability to play with elite bend mixed with explosiveness allows him to consistently get into the teeth of the defense as a straight-line driver. In transition, he’s an absolute menace. His nose for the foul line is second to none in this draft class with his polished footwork and gathers. That’s what allowed him to be as monstrously productive as he was this season, averaging more than 25 points while shooting over 50 percent from the field. He is a historically notable scoring prospect as a big-time wing, and it helps that he showed major improvement as a shooter and passer this season after seemingly stagnating a bit in the year before he played at BYU.

However, the aspects of Dybantsa’s game beyond his scoring acumen are unpolished. He’s nowhere near as deficient a ballhandler as Ace Bailey as a big wing because of his ability to play with bend and drive, but he needs to tighten up with the ball to consistently make better passing reads. The strides were there this season, but to be a primary decision-maker in the NBA, the standard is almost impossibly high. Additionally, Dybantsa needs to show improvement on the defensive end, where his engagement and overall anticipation are not quite good enough.

But if we’re drafting for ceiling-level outcomes at the top of the draft, Dybantsa’s mix of unique athletic traits and proven scoring ability gives him the highest apex of all the prospects in the class. There’s no better blend of size, power, length, athleticism and skill in this class, and his overall feel for the game on offense is not poor. Dybantsa’s weaknesses are also more fixable than the weaknesses of other prospects at this size. You can improve his ability to handle the ball, and he has shown enough vision and problem-solving skills on the ball to believe he’s growing there. He’s not a completely negative defender with his size and length, and he won’t be attacked on that end even if he still needs to work through his anticipation issues.

There are outcomes here where Dybantsa averages 30 points and six assists in his prime, providing slightly above-average defense. That player who would be in the All-NBA picture and could even find himself in MVP discussions. Dybantsa’s floor in his prime is probably in the ballpark of what Jaylen Brown’s was before his 29-point-per-game breakout this season: a 22-point-per-game scorer who is switchable on defense but messy off the ball with some questionable moments as a ballhandler and passer. That’s still a player who provides borderline All-Star-level talent. Dybantsa is the best combination of upside and floor in the class, which is why he is my No. 1 player.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had Cameron Boozer ranked higher, but a lot of smart people I respect disagree with me, and Dybantsa’s fit between Trae Young and Anthony Davis is hard to deny. And if ultimately the choice was between Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, I thought Dybantsa was clearly the pick. I would give the Wizards a less flattering grade for Trae Young’s extension. Grade: B+

2. Utah Jazz

Darryn Peterson | 6-5 | 19 years old

Peterson was as complete a guard as I’ve evaluated entering college basketball in a long while. He’s an aggressive shot hunter on the court, and I love the way that he went about improving his passing ability out of ball screens. Until this season at Kansas, he had never stagnated, continually working his way up a steady trajectory to the top of his recruiting class.

But then he plateaued with the Jayhawks, and there is a case that he took a step back in some respects — especially as a passer and playmaker. How much of it was because of injury? How much of it was because of the situation around him at Kansas? How much of it was because college basketball was harder than high school? Peterson’s performance raised questions, especially in regard to his decision-making and ability to consistently get paint touches. However, it’s possible these issues go away once he gets into an NBA offensive scheme.

I’m buying into what I saw in Peterson in high school. It’s exceptionally hard to find players who are this creative, who can make shots at this level at such a young age and who have at least demonstrated the ability to pass and defend at some point, even if those skills have been inconsistent. Yes, there are questions that Peterson needs to answer for NBA teams. But the talent is the talent, and Peterson projects to be the kind of player who can dribble, pass, shoot, defend and think the game at a high level as long as his development goes well in the next two years.

Hollinger’s analysis: You don’t draft for fit this high, but man, it would have been tough to slot Cameron Boozer into this Utah frontcourt without making other moves. I wonder if the Jazz should have looked harder at trading down. I had Peterson fourth on my board, but he fits perfectly on this roster, and the other two guys I had ahead of him don’t. Grade: B

3. Memphis Grizzlies

Cameron Boozer | 6-8 | 18 years old

Boozer is one of the most statistically dominant players we’ve seen enter the NBA in a long time. He’s won at every single level and dominated with his play. He is multiskilled and incredibly versatile, which makes him exceptionally difficult to game plan for. As a scorer, he can beat you in ball screens both as a ballhandler and screener. He can beat you as a floor-spacing shooter. He can attack closeouts or he can post you up and score that way through his physicality. He has a brilliant basketball mind, passes incredibly well and understands how to put his teams into positive positions. I think he’s pretty close to a can’t-fail offensive prospect. I don’t see him as a Nikola Jokić-level processor of the game, and his lack of size compared to the Serbian star is an issue. However, I think the odds are that he’s above the level of Alperen Şengün, who has made two All-Star Games and been remarkably productive in the NBA.

The only reason I don’t have Boozer at No. 1 is that I think his skills play better as a No. 2 type of star in the NBA as opposed to a No. 1. The odds are somewhat high that teams will take advantage of Boozer defensively, even though he’s a sharp decision-maker and processor with good hands. Additionally, I worry about him creating advantages in the NBA versus simply being one of the best players in the NBA at taking advantage of situations created for him. Still, I don’t see a world in which Boozer isn’t at least an excellent starter with significant All-Star upside, unless the defense really becomes a problem if his body fills out even more. I’d bet a lot on his versatility making him a multi-time All-NBA player in terms of his production.

Hollinger’s analysis: The Grizzlies get the guy that I had No. 1, and they possibly might have had first as well. Boozer should be the first major building block for what is going to be a full teardown rebuilding project in Memphis, ahead of a likely trade of Ja Morant this summer. Grade: A

4. Chicago Bulls

Caleb Wilson | 6-9 | 19 years old

Wilson has huge upside athletically, which gives him an All-Star ceiling. His blend of power, explosiveness and coordination on his drives and transition gives him tools other players can’t match. When you combine that with his motor on offense and nose for the ball, it allows him to be remarkably productive. With further skill-based improvement, he has difference-making outcomes in his profile, similar to someone like Pascal Siakam, who has made multiple All-NBA teams.

But he could also become a great, productive four who doesn’t quite impact winning in the way you want if the skill level and defense don’t improve. He has a similar profile to John Collins as an athletic play-finishing big man if his defense and shot-creation skills don’t grow, though Wilson is more coordinated as a ballhandler and plays with quicker reactivity and twitch. Wilson could easily transition into more of a hybrid three/four wing if those pieces come along, or he could end up as more of an undersized four/five.

Wilson has serious upside, but he is more flawed than a few of the other elite players in the class. There are more pathways for him to become a good starter/rotation player than some of the others. His work ethic will tell the tale of what he becomes in the NBA. But if he’s willing to put in the right kind of work, the ceiling is remarkably high.

Hollinger’s analysis: The only logical pick after the top three names were off the board. Wilson has some positional overlaps with Matas Buzelis, the Bulls’ other best young player, but long term, they could be a towering pair of above-the-rim bookend forwards … as long as at least one of the two becomes a reliable shooter. Grade: A

5. LA Clippers

Keaton Wagler | 6-5 | 19 years old

Wagler is one of the more complete guard prospects I’ve evaluated in a while. He is a terrific bet to be a skilled dribble, pass and shoot player who can play both on and off the ball in an era when the NBA demands those skills from its perimeter players. He drills over 40 percent of his pull-up 3s and catch-and-shoot 3s, making him a serious floor-spacing threat. His vision is superb, and his handle is tight and slithery despite playing upright. He’s an elite decision-maker with an excellent feel for the game. This is the kind of player who thrives in today’s NBA, and he’s already played in an NBA-style scheme with NBA-level spacing at Illinois.

There aren’t many scenarios in which Wagler crashes out of the league and fails, because it’s hard to do so when you can shoot, pass and handle at this level. But to reach what I think is a serious chance at All-Star upside, Wagler needs to get stronger. He’s totally fearless on his drives and seems to have great basketball character. But he needs to get more physical to maintain the advantages he creates in ball screens and become a consistent on-ball threat. He’ll also need strength to defend more consistently than what he showed at Illinois this year. He knows where to be, but it’s going to take some time.

This is the biggest surprise, pop-up one-and-done draft pick in the entire time I’ve been scouting. Wagler was elite this season at Illinois despite his lack of pedigree. He also led the No. 1 offense in the country. This is a potential All-Star guard if things break right with his physical development. He reminds me a lot of Austin Reaves stylistically, and he maybe even has more upside than that long term.

Hollinger’s analysis: I liked Kingston Flemings the best of this point guard pile-up between the fifth and (roughly) 10th picks, but Wagler’s ability to play off the ball next to Darius Garland likely makes him a better fit for what the Clippers hope will be their backcourt of the future, and the margin between Wagler and Flemings was relatively small to me. Grade: B+

6. Brooklyn Nets

Mikel Brown Jr. | 6-4 | 20 years old

The pitch with Brown is simple. In today’s NBA, there might not be a more important intersection of skills than shooting and passing ability. Brown has those skills in a big way. He’s a monster 3-point shooter who hits them at volume, and he is a tremendous live-dribble passer who reads the court well and makes good decisions while also being able to separate in ball screens. With those two skills alone, it sets him up for a tremendous amount of success.

Brown needs to keep taking steps with his frame, however. On-ball players this skinny who have entered the NBA recently have struggled. The NBA is a man’s league. There’s no other way to put it. Brown is going to have to keep filling out now that he has grown to 6 feet 4. On one hand, I tend to be hard on smaller guards — and despite Brown’s height, he plays like a smaller guard. On the other hand, I tend to value skill, high IQ and shooting ability as much as anything. Brown possesses those skills in an immense quantity for such a young player.

He’s a polarizing prospect for scouts for a reason, and I go back and forth daily on what his future holds. Some days I see him as the best bet outside of the top five in the class, and other days, I’m not totally sure I see him as a winning NBA player.

Hollinger’s analysis: This feels like a bit of a reach, and the Nets’ recent draft history doesn’t inspire confidence that they know more than the wisdom of crowds on this one. Brown’s back issues at Louisville are also a concern, but the Nets have never shied away from a medical case and have frequently profited from this under Sean Marks. Grade: C+

7. Sacramento Kings

Darius Acuff Jr. | 6-2 | 19 years old

The conversation with Acuff is a difficult one. Undeniably, he’s going to be useful as an NBA player because he’s an excellent shot creator with physicality and the handle to separate from opponents. His shooting improved drastically this season, which allowed him to be efficient enough even despite his propensity for shots from the midrange. However, Acuff’s defense was quite poor, and the impact metrics overall back up the idea that his presence was often extremely harmful on that end of the court.

More than ever, smaller, ball-dominant guards are not seen as useful unless they are at the absolute apex of the league like Jalen Brunson. Acuff has a very narrow pathway toward success at the highest levels of the NBA. If you think he’s that good and has a lot of NBA All-Star equity, then you can reasonably have him in the lottery. But this profile feels like a better version of what Jeremiah Fears was last year, and the two are about the same age. Fears didn’t exactly show last season in New Orleans that he can be an impactful part of a winning team, with the Pelicans being one of the worst teams in the league and his presence tanking their lineup data when he’s on the court. We’ll see what happens with Acuff.

Hollinger’s analysis: I like Flemings better than Acuff, but Acuff has Damian Lillard-esque upside as an offensive player, and the Kings desperately need a guy like this at the controls, one who could potentially be a one-man offense if everything breaks right. I’d just like his odds of hitting better if it were any other organization that took him. Grade: B

8. Atlanta Hawks

Kingston Flemings | 6-3 | 19 years old

I want to love Flemings, and I think there is undeniably All-Star upside if his development goes right. The intel on Flemings as a human being is strong, and he seems to have a full understanding of what his role will be at the next level, as well as what he needs to work on. He was productive and efficient offensively in what was not an ideal circumstance for his skill set as a driver and athlete at Houston this season. He was rightfully named an All-American as a freshman while playing for Kelvin Sampson, one of the toughest coaches in the country on young players. If you give him more space to operate like he will receive in the NBA, there’s a chance that he will flourish.

The key for Flemings to reach that upside is to improve his gathers, get stronger through his lower half and become an even better shooter. I love his passing and decision-making, as he comes up with creative angles. I love his ability to get into the midrange, which will be an essential counter. But he will need a floater game and will need to keep improving his footwork as he learns to play with more consistent slow steps and Euro steps. Defensively, too, his size will be an impediment, but he has a good enough frame to improve and avoid being a negative on that end.

This is an easy profile of a player to fall in love with. I would bet on Flemings making an All-Star Game at some point and being the kind of point guard teammates love playing with.

Hollinger’s analysis: The temptation to take big man Aday Mara had to be alluring, but Flemings is clearly the right pick. I liked him the best of any point guard in this draft, and the Hawks had a clear need for a true point guard in the wake of Trae Young’s departure last season. A nice reward for the Hawks after moving down 10 spots in the draft a year ago. Grade: A

9. Dallas Mavericks

Morez Johnson Jr. | 6-9 | 20 years old

I’m a big fan of the versatility Johnson brings defensively, and it’s hard for me to see how he doesn’t end up being a useful player on a winning NBA team. He allows a team to play multiple coverages on defense and can help a team have flexibility to go big or small, depending on the roster around him. If you want to kill the glass, you should play him at the four. If you want to go smaller and more mobile, he should be able to deal with most centers at the five.

Johnson could expand his value if the 3-point jumper comes along. If the Mavs could go five-out with Johnson at center, he would have a shot to close games in playoff situations. But the question is simply what kind of value Johnson will provide on offense, and if that will allow him to be more of a starting big or a third big. Even as a third big, I like the value proposition in the middle of the first round because I am willing to bet on Johnson’s character and toughness.

Hollinger’s analysis: Surprise! I’m a fan of Johnson but not quite at this level. I think his offensive limitations are a bit much to select him in the top 10 in such a strong draft. He also has some positional questions on this roster since the frontcourt is so loaded already. Shockingly, he goes ahead of his two Michigan teammates (Aday Mara and Lendeborg), both of whom most had rated higher throughout the draft cycle. Obviously, you wonder how much influence newly hired coach (and former Michigan head coach) Dusty May had on all this. Grade: C+

10. Milwaukee Bucks

Brayden Burries | 6-4 | 20 years old

It’s hard for me to see how Burries won’t be a successful NBA player, at least in some regard. He’s a terrific two-way threat who can pressure the defense from all three levels as a scorer, thanks to his jumper and footwork. Defensively, he’s a hard-nosed, on-ball player who stays engaged off the ball and makes action plays happen with disruptive hands. I loved the way he fit into what Arizona did this season, not only as the team’s primary scoring threat but also as part of what made it a great defensive team.

Yet, I could understand if rebuilding teams aren’t wildly enthusiastic about Burries. He strikes me more as an elite complementary player than one who will turn into a star. I think he can average 20 points while playing high-level defense, but for him to turn into an All-Star, we’d need to see growth as a passer and playmaker, as well as development in his ability to create separation. He’d probably be successful at a place like Charlotte within Charles Lee’s offense. But in Milwaukee, without Giannis Antetokounmpo and asking him to be a primary player, I’m less enthusiastic and probably rank him more at the end of this tier of guards.

Hollinger’s analysis: I love this pick by the Bucks. In their position, you have to just get the best player available, and Burries was the last player left in my tier of quality guards before we got into the “everybody else” portion of the draft. His arrival could also be a signal that newly acquired Tyler Herro might not be a long-term guy in Milwaukee. Grade: A-

11. Golden State Warriors

Yaxel Lendeborg | 6-9 | 23 years old

There are some limitations with Lendeborg as a true creator, but it’s hard to find a player more ready-made to step into an NBA rotation. He’s a monster defender with legitimate plus-plus tools in terms of size and length at 6 feet 9 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and the fluidity to slide his feet laterally. I would bet on him maxing out just below the level of All-Defensive, but I don’t think I can completely rule it out if he really decides he wants to be a stopper.

On offense, he has a very versatile skill set that should translate exceedingly well toward playing off other stars. I loved the way he slotted into the team concept this year at Michigan and didn’t make things about himself. At times, I’m not sure Lendeborg truly understands how complete his game is and how talented he is. But when it comes to slotting into a role in the NBA and playing off superstars, that’s not always a bad thing.

There’s a chance he ends up peaking as a top 50 or so player in the league because of his two-way play. My idea here is basically, “What if you made Rui Hachimura a terrific defender who could also pass?” Or, what if Lendeborg is just a slight step below OG Anunoby? That’s an awesome player, and one whom every team is going to want, even if he’s almost 24 years old.

Hollinger’s analysis: I love this pick for the Warriors, and I suspect the Thunder front office (picking next) does not. Lendeborg is an older player, but he is a ready-made, Day 1 starter who can fill minutes at three positions and fits nicely on a team that is on a win-now trajectory. He doesn’t have the long-term upside of some other guys, but in terms of Year 1 impact, he may rival anyone in this draft. Grade: A-

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

Aday Mara | 7-3 | 21 years old

Mara is a polarizing prospect because you have to play a very specific scheme and structure with him. You have to be willing to play in drop coverage, and to get the most out of him on offense, you need to be willing to lean into his special passing ability from the top of the court or on the block. But if you’re comfortable with playing such a style, Mara is a terrific get.

He’s a great finisher around the rim because of his touch and size. His passing ability is sublime, and his rim protection is exceedingly valuable. Yes, he needs to get in better shape and move his feet better so he can run out rotations and games. But it’s really hard to find bigs who are this multiskilled and have this type of basketball IQ. I have him as a late lottery pick, even with those flaws.

Yes, there will be matchups that can exploit him and potentially play him off the court. But by and large, Mara has the look of a starting NBA center with the floor of a backup if he doesn’t improve upon his weaknesses. Barring injury, it’s hard for me to see how he’s not at least a useful NBA player.

Hollinger’s analysis: Mara was the best player available, but he’s a curious fit on an Oklahoma City roster that already has two other accomplished centers (Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren), a reliable backup in Jaylin Williams and just used a mid-first-round pick a year ago on center Thomas Sorber. This seemingly portends a trade somewhere down the line, but for now, the Thunder capitalized on a talent tier drop-off ahead of the next group of players. Grade: B

13. Milwaukee Bucks (via MIA)

Nate Ament | 6-10 | 19 years old

This was not a great freshman season for Ament, and many scouts came away underwhelmed with his profile. I’m willing to hear the case that his environment at Tennessee was not ideal for his success, and that would be reasonable. It is genuinely impressive that he handled the kind of usage he was given on an Elite Eight team.

But a lot of Ament’s season had popped up in the past as skill-based concerns. The finishing has always been a concern. His handle has never been that creative. The jump shot has always needed work, even when it was falling as a senior in high school. He also plays very upright and is tall with high hips, meaning he can get moved around without being able to anchor to his spot.

Typically, I would be willing to fully sell Ament as a difference-maker in the NBA because this player archetype is just not my favorite. And yet, a lot of Ament’s profile reminds me of what Jaden McDaniels looked like coming out of Washington. McDaniels was more disruptive defensively, which is ultimately where he has made his bread and butter in the NBA. He’s also a twitchier athlete. But Ament covers ground similarly well thanks to his length and seems to care on that end. I ranked McDaniels 30th in 2020. That’s not far from where he was picked (No. 28), but it’s drastically lower than where he should have been picked. I’m probably going to end up lower on Ament than many scouts, but I can’t fully disregard this skill set and potential as a 3-and-D player.

Hollinger’s analysis: Another logical pick by the Bucks as they turn toward a rebuild. Ament was the highest player left on my board, and Milwaukee needs to be in the mode of talent-hoarding; the Bucks can worry about fit once they’re good enough for it to matter. The Bucks acquired this pick in the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, which won’t complete until July 6, so the pick was announced as Miami’s. Grade: A-

14. Charlotte Hornets

Hannes Steinbach | 6-10 | 20 years old

I feel confident that Steinbach is going to be a long-term NBA player. Guys who are this big, skilled and coordinated, and this productive on the glass at a high level in Europe and in the United States collegiate system, are always going to stick around for a while. It’s ultimately about the role and how impactful he’ll be on winning games if he’s asked to do certain things.

Is he more of a third big man who can play both the four and the five if he can’t protect the rim well enough? Or can he develop enough on defense to become a starter who doesn’t take too much off the table, and who hurts the opposition with his finishing around the rim and offensive rebounding? With how important the possession battle is in today’s NBA and how important crashing the glass is on both ends, Steinbach is worth a first-round pick.

But there are very differing opinions on whether he can be a top-half-of-the-league starting center, more of a top-20 to -30 big man or a backup. I ended up with him in the back part of the lottery because there is safety that he’s going to stick for a long time. But even I’m not sure if he’s a top-20 center long term or more of a backup on a really good team.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had Steinbach a bit lower on my board, but Charlotte’s need for frontcourt help is undeniable, and Steinbach is an elite rebounder who can also add some stretch capability. I would have liked this choice a lot better with the Hornets’ second pick at No. 18, especially since Steinbach’s lack of rim protection and switchability likely limits his role somewhat, but this does check an important box. Grade: B-

15. Chicago Bulls

Dailyn Swain | 6-7 | 20 years old

Swain is a polarizing prospect, and there are reasonable arguments for and against him. On the plus side, it’s difficult to find a player with this kind of driving upside. He’s big and physical with terrific body control and a ready-made slashing game. Paint touches are the name of the game in the NBA, and Swain showed he can get those in college while finishing at the rim at a tremendous level on self-created opportunities. Given that he also passes at a solid level, you can squint and see a world in which Swain, with improvement in some key areas, could turn into a top-three option.

But there are a lot of flaws to fix, too. Swain has to fix the jumper, which is going to be complicated, if he ever wants to shoot at volume in the NBA. He needs to make decisions more quickly and lock in defensively. These are key flaws that could stop him from seeing the court early on. If you believe in your developmental staff, I’m all for having Swain as a lottery pick. I thought a team like the Bulls, with a new coaching staff and front office, might feel less inclined to take a chance on him, given the issues in his game.

Swain is a situational bet. Ranking him on a board like this is therefore extremely difficult, as I’d have him drastically higher or lower depending on the team situation in which I’d consider him.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had Swain as a big sleeper in my draft board at No. 14. He went 15th. It’s a little bit of a triggering moment for Bulls fans who saw the team whiff on countless “intriguing” wing and forward prospects under the previous regime, but Swain is far enough along offensively that I’m relatively confident he can be a plus rotation player, if not a starter at some point. Grade: A-

16. Oklahoma City Thunder

Bennett Stirtz | 6-3| 22 years old

Stirtz was one of the best guards in college basketball last season and has positional size to play on or off the ball. I love his game in ball-screen situations. He has the exact blend of high basketball IQ and high skill that I love in players like this. He’s a terrific shooter and a remarkable passer who makes good decisions.

Ultimately, whether Stirtz can be an NBA starter will be determined by whether his defense gets to a strong enough level and whether he can separate from his man. I buy Stirtz being a useful NBA player because of his shooting and decision-making out of ball screens. And he has outs because he is elite, as on catch-and-shoot 3s.
It’s hard for me to see him not sticking in the NBA. But he has things to work on.

Hollinger’s analysis: A trade! Finally! Oklahoma City has prized ballhandling in its past few drafts and appeared to tilt that direction again with its second first-round pick, trading with Memphis to move up one spot and grab Stirtz. He gives the Thunder a true point guard to play next to their more scoring-oriented guards. I had him rated lower than this and think the Thunder could have waited among Stirtz, Labaron Philon and Ebuka Okorie, but they decided to jump up for their guy. This pick is also not a great omen for 2024 lottery pick Nikola Topić. Grade: B-

17. Detroit Pistons

Ebuka Okorie | 6-1 | 19 years old

Okorie’s game is one of extreme strengths that are highly valued in today’s NBA and one of weaknesses that could counteract those strengths. Namely, when Okorie is attacking off the bounce, there is no better guard in this class at touching the paint. His handle and reactivity to how defenders play him are lethal, and he has incredible tools to collapse defenses.

But what happens after he collapses those defenses needs to improve. He needs to become a better finisher and a much more consistent passer for the offense to flow. He also needs to iron out how quickly he gets the ball out of his hands as a shooter and to become a stronger defender to reach league average. The names I think of when I watch Okorie are former Dallas Mavericks guard Roddy Beaubois and current Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Dennis Schröder. Beaubois looked poised to have a long NBA career before injuries struck in Dallas, and Schröder has lived in the lane and averaged double figures for the last 12 years.

Ultimately, Okorie is worth a top-20 pick because being able to touch the paint in the biggest moments is incredibly important. Okorie has upside beyond that, too, given his youth and incredible production. But there are flaws to work through that could limit his NBA impact early on.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had Karim López rated higher, but in terms of the Pistons’ needs, it’s hard to argue with a high-scoring guard whose analytics jumped off the page.  While he’ll have to improve as a distributor, Okorie’s scoring should add some punch to what were some pretty moribund Detroit second units. That said, giving up three second-round picks to move up four spots is a pretty rich premium in a draft thick with point guard prospects. Grade: B+

18. Charlotte Hornets

Christian Anderson Jr. | 6-1 | 20 years old

I want to bet on Anderson’s upside as a shooter, as there is a legitimate chance that we look up in three years and see him as one of the best shooters on Earth. He’s that good. His shot is that balanced and versatile, and he can drill it in so many different types of situations.

I just can’t get there with Anderson on defense. If I’m going to bet on a smaller guard, I want him to have some strength or physicality to his game. Anderson isn’t afraid of getting bumped, but I don’t see how he’ll be strong enough to hold his lines and pressure anyone outside of lead guards on defense. In today’s NBA, where teams are much better at attacking smaller players and isolating them into the matchups they want, Anderson is going to have a tough time.

He projects as either a low-end starter or a high-end backup guard, which is still a player worth taking in the first round. If the shooting translates at the elite level it has potential to be, he could have some latent high-quality starter impact in the right situation offensively. If I thought he could create rim pressure or defend, I would have him much higher and bet on his upside.

Hollinger’s analysis: I was a bit lower on Anderson than some of my other draftniks, but his long-range shooting ability should fit nicely on a Charlotte team that bombed away freely last year. He also checks the backup point guard box that went mostly unfilled a year ago. The question for the Hornets likely came down to Anderson versus Labaron Philon, and I had them one after the other on my board. Grade: B

19. Toronto Raptors

Allen Graves | 6-8 | 19 years old

It’s easy to see the appeal of Graves in the modern NBA, given how much he helps you win the possession battle. He gets steals. He rebounds, creates second chances and doesn’t turn the ball over. By the time he’s 25 or so, the odds are good that Graves is going to be a useful rotation player.

But I think he’s entering the draft a couple of years before he’s ready, and the first team that acquires him isn’t likely to get the most out of him. Graves still needs to improve his body and maximize whatever speed and agility he can. He needs to continue to find his offensive game, because I don’t think he’s there yet as a shooter. It’ll require a creative basketball coach to figure out how to use him on that end, given that he operated at times as a hub for Santa Clara and won’t be asked to do that in the NBA.

All the intel reports on Graves are elite, so you want to buy into him long term. But I don’t believe he’s going to be that useful in the NBA within the first few years of his career given the intense athletic adjustment he’ll face and the way he struggled against good competition this past season.

Hollinger’s analysis: Party on, nerds! Graves was the analytics darling of this draft after his one season at Santa Clara saw him post massive rates of steals, rebounds and assists for a player of his size and seemingly limited athleticism. His positional fit at the next level is still a bit of a question, but I love the upside swing at a point in the draft where the players selected are most likely to turn out to be backups. Grade: A–

20. San Antonio Spurs

Jayden Quaintance | 6-9 | 18 years old

When I watch Quaintance, the name that comes to mind most is Robert Williams III, who has been one of the best defensive players in the NBA when healthy. Williams and Quaintance have a tremendous blend of length and fluid athleticism that allows them to be proactive on defense instead of reactive.

If you told me Williams was going to be healthy for a significant portion of his career, he’d be worth a top-10 pick. In that vein, as long as his knee recovery goes off without a hitch, I feel similarly about Quaintance. He’s versatile defensively in a way that allows you to keep offenses guessing. You can switch, play at the level or play drop coverage and be successful in any situation. That makes life harder for offenses trying to plan for what you’re going to do. And Quaintance’s offensive game should be just good enough within a motion offense when you start to get him on the move and making decisions that he’ll be valuable on that end.

I don’t know that I see massive offensive upside for him unless he undergoes outlier jump-shot development — an area for improvement that I still see as worthwhile for him — but his defense has a chance to be game-changing in the NBA. It’s hard to find potential All-Defensive guys; he’s one of them.

Hollinger’s analysis: I would have liked to see San Antonio select a true power forward sitting right there in Karim López. However, the temptation to snag Quaintance and, if healthy and he hits, pair him with Victor Wembanyama was possibly just too tempting for San Antonio. Questions about Quaintance’s health and offense had hurt his draft stock. I think the Spurs could have moonwalked back a few spots and still made the same pick. Grade: B-

21. Memphis Grizzlies

Karim López | 6-8 | 19 years old

I’m guessing I’m among the lower evaluators on López. I’m not sure how he gets on an NBA court early in his career. I love his frame and physicality. I love that he rebounds and attacks with aggression. But I’m not sure he’s good enough without the ball to make an early impact in the NBA.

He’s a bad defender, which will cause issues with coaches as he tries to learn how to become more anticipatory. The jumper is too inconsistent, especially off movement. Those are the two areas López would be best off dedicating all his time and energy to over the next two years. He needs to play to develop, and I’m not sure coaches will put him out there if he can’t shoot or defend.

Will his game translate more toward being one of the best players in EuroLeague by the time he’s 25, as opposed to a good NBA player? There’s no shame in that — and López will earn an incredible amount of money in his career — but his physical driving ability and talent to be a potential mismatch four might translate better in Europe than in the NBA. Still, I’d be willing to take the chance late in the first round to find out if he can develop the shot and defense. He seems like a great example of a player who might be better on the second team he plays for than the first team.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had López rated quite a bit higher than this and was surprised to see him slide this far. Memphis execs put in the work to see him down under, for what it’s worth, and by moving down from No. 16 before picking López, the Grizzlies added five second-round picks while also nabbing a young, two-way forward who can be part of this rebuild. Solid stuff all around. Grade: A

22. Philadelphia 76ers

Labaron Philon Jr. | 6-3 | 20 years old

If Philon had stayed in the draft last year, he would have been one of my 20 favorite bets to carve out a long-term NBA career. I love his basketball IQ with and without the ball. I still feel that way this year, which is why he has a top-20 grade on this board. His improvement as an on-ball player this season while transitioning into that role could not have gone better, as he led the Alabama offense to a top-three mark in the country while putting up video-game-like numbers. The stats are certainly inflated by the spacing and pace of Alabama’s offense, but Philon had a terrific season. His improvement as a finisher at the rim potentially changes his trajectory, making him a possible starting point guard if things break right.

However, his lack of strength, questionable frame and lack of true explosiveness create several questions about his translation to the next level, along with his inability to merge offensive and defensive value in the same season. I feel much more comfortable with him outside of the lottery than within it, as there is a good chance he’ll end up being something like a Dennis Schröder-style guard who starts for a few years but settles in best as more of a sixth man. If the whole three-level scoring package along with the defense translates, however, there is some Mike Conley-ish upside as a sub-All-Star starting lead guard.

Hollinger’s analysis: A scoring guard with a splendid array of finishes, Philon should add some juice to the non-Tyrese Maxey minutes in Philly once he gets his NBA sea legs. The Sixers have no viable backup point guard at the moment, so Philon could play right away. Philon also ends up being the last in the wave of eight point guards who projected to go between picks No. 5 and No. 25. Grade: B+

23. Atlanta Hawks

Zuby Ejiofor | 6-8 | 22 years old

Ejiofor’s profile reminds me of a cross between Detroit Pistons centers Isaiah Stewart and Paul Reed. Like Stewart, Ejiofor has the kind of strength to deal with being an undersized big. Like Reed, he has the motor to chase every loose ball.

Defensively, Ejiofor is going to bring it every night. The issue, though, is that he’s not the defensive rebounder that either of those players is, which is a significant non-negotiable to play the center position. Additionally, both of those players have struggled to provide consistent impact as finishers at the rim and aren’t useful as shooters.

Ejiofor certainly has a chance to stick in the NBA, and I wouldn’t mind a team giving him a guaranteed contract with multiple years to find out whether he can do it. But he’s right on the edge of that “guaranteed deal versus two-way contract” line for me and is a top-40 player in the class.

Hollinger’s analysis: This is a bit high for Ejiofor in my opinion, but I had a late-first-round grade on him. In this case, I get it: The Hawks were likely to nab one point guard and one center with the two picks, given the roster needs. Ejiofor offers winning toughness and a plug-and-play role player who can fill in frontcourt minutes at either position immediately, even if his limited offensive game likely caps his upside. One concern: He’s another undersized big; wide and strong, yes, but only 6-7 1/2 in socks next to the 6-8 Onyeka Okongwu. Grade: B

24. Los Angeles Lakers

Cameron Carr | 6-5 | 21 years old

Offensively, Carr’s game looks like one that should blend perfectly into the NBA. He’s a legitimate 3-point shooter who can attack closeouts, plays well off the ball as a cutter and takes advantage of opportunities as a finisher because of his length. He has the physical height and length that NBA teams canvass the globe to find.

The swing skill toward Carr being a positive NBA player is obvious. He needs to get stronger. He needs to play with more bend. He needs to be willing to get more physical. And once that happens, he needs to be much more active and engaged on defense. Some of these things are fixable, as Carr has already done good work on his frame as he has gotten older. He looks a lot like a late bloomer to be excited about, even though he’s already 21.

Carr felt like a good post-lottery bet to take somewhere in the first round, with some ceiling to be a legitimate starter at the two guard position or as a microwave sixth man if the frame comes together.

Hollinger’s analysis: I had Carr rated five spots higher than this and like his fit in L.A. as an athletic shot-maker who can do more than just make jump shots. I think Carr has a chance to be the player the Lakers thought they were getting when they picked Dalton Knecht. The Lakers paid to trade up and make sure they got their guy. Grade: B+

25. Dallas Mavericks

Sergio De Larrea | 6-6 | 20 years old

De Larrea is a skilled player with a high basketball IQ, and those are the kind of players I tend to value highly. I understand why a team would want to take a flier late in the first round on him.

He can shoot, and I love the way he sees the game as a passer or playmaker. But because I don’t love the suddenness or tightness of his handle, I’m not sure he can be anything more than a secondary playmaker in the NBA. That’s OK, but I haven’t seen much that makes me think he’ll separate effectively. To play in the NBA in that role, he’ll have to max out his shooting ability and get considerably stronger to be effective on defense. Ultimately, I believe De Larrea will play in the NBA, but he has some work to do to stick.

Hollinger’s analysis: I love this pick for Dallas. I had De Larrea in my top 15 and think teams slept on him while he was hugely productive in Spain the past two years. The Mavs gave up two seconds to move up from No. 30 and make sure they got him, which I see as a justifiable investment given the talent cliff that hit basically right after this pick. He’s a Bogdan Bogdanović-type guard with good size who can shoot and pass and should help Cooper Flagg whether he’s on or off the ball. Grade: A

26. San Antonio Spurs

Tarris Reed Jr. | 6-10 | 22 years old

I buy Reed as a solid backup big man in the NBA. He’s big, physical and unafraid of contact. He’s exceptionally strong and can hold his ground on the interior against physical drivers and bigger post players. He has consistently been an elite rebounder who will help you win the possession game and has good touch around the basket.

Defensively, there is room for improvement, and I’m curious to see how the jump shot develops, even though it’s hard to project him as a shooter. He lacks elite size and athleticism, and that will likely stop him from reaching NBA-starter level. But the league is always looking for bigger bodies who can come in and play 15 minutes per night, and Reed can probably do that. He should stick around and be useful for a while. He is above the Adama Sanogo line, to compare him to another Connecticut big, as a potential backup center because he’s bigger and more versatile on defense.

Hollinger’s analysis: Spurs off the top rope with two second-round picks to move up from No. 35 and select … another center? I’m confused. Is Victor Wembanyama moving to power forward? I thought they tried this with Luke Kornet last year, and it didn’t work? Anyway, San Antonio has acquired another basketball player, one I didn’t have a first-round grade on but who can likely stick as a backup. You have to think he would have helped the team that traded the pick (Denver) more than San Antonio. Grade: C-

27. Boston Celtics

Chris Cenac Jr. | 6-10 | 19 years old

Cenac was among the players I was most intrigued to watch this past season in college basketball. His athletic tools are terrific for his size. But he seems far behind in how he reads and reacts to the game. He doesn’t always fully access those tools because he’s a step slow in reading what’s happening on the court.

He’s probably entering the draft at least one year — if not two years — before he’s ready, and my guess is Cenac will have a slow build over the next few years. Don’t expect anything in Year 1, as he should be considered a project. It’s a total feast-or-famine profile. Given the time and resources it would take to develop Cenac into a player who can see legitimate NBA rotational minutes, I’m probably lower than consensus on him as a prospect. There’s a chance Cenac will be quite good by the time he’s 25. I just don’t know that it’ll be for the first team that has him.

Hollinger’s analysis: Boston is fond of toolsy guys like this, and the Celtics have a strong record of developing them. Cenac is a plus rebounder, and his ability to make outside shots likely helps him in Boston’s 3-happy system, but despite those outlines, he’s a project who is unlikely to contribute right away. Grade: B+

28. Brooklyn Nets

Joshua Jefferson | 6-8 | 22 years old

Jefferson was one of my favorite players in college basketball this past season. He’s probably the closest thing I’ve seen to an Oso Ighodaro- and Kyle Anderson-type hybrid as a connective-tissue passer since Anderson entered the draft in 2014.

The easiest way for me to explain him is that he’s basically what happens if you combine Anderson’s slow-mo tendencies as an elite basketball-IQ guy with Ighodaro’s lightning-quick decision-making at the four. I’m a big believer in betting on players with elite brains for the game who also possess positional size. These are the guys who tend to have answers to the test when they come up in big moments.

Yes, Jefferson needs to learn to shoot more consistently, and I’d love to see him maximize his frame in whatever way possible. But give me players who can dribble, pass, shoot, defend and think, and I’ll bet on them figuring it out.

Hollinger’s analysis: I didn’t have a first-round grade on Jefferson, but the Nets may have inadvertently made a solid draft pick. He can read the game and pass, and if he can work on his body and improve the shooting a bit, he has a chance to be a plus rotation player. The Nets are also basically devoid of his player archetype, save for the soon-to-arrive and possibly-not-there-for-long Julius Randle. Grade: B

29. Sacramento Kings

Alex Karaban | 6-7 | 23 years old

I tend to be a fan of winning basketball players, so it shouldn’t be a stunner that I like Karaban. It’s harder than you think to find players who can knock down shots from the perimeter and be solid team defenders in-scheme.

Karaban profiles well to help a team because of his ability to make decisions, move the ball quickly, knock down shots and move incredibly well without the ball. On defense, he is always in the right position, consistently reads the play correctly and disrupts what the opposition wants to do by scrambling well. There are limitations in that he can’t beat anyone off the bounce, and there are some on-ball defensive questions that could cause issues.

Still, I strongly believe that any NBA organization would be better off having Karaban’s presence within its system. He’s a hard worker, he has high character and he’s won a significant number of games as a starter on what has been the best college program in the country over the last five years. It speaks volumes that he has been the common denominator on the court during that time.

Hollinger’s analysis: Karaban has been a divisive player among scouts, which means that some think he’s good and others, like me, wonder what the first group has been looking at. Sacramento has a clear need for big forwards, especially once the Kings potentially move on from DeMar DeRozan, so there’s a clear runway for minutes here. But this is not a player I would have traded up to select. I had him 41st on my board. Grade: C-

30. Phoenix Suns

Koa Peat | 6-7 | 19 years old

Peat was one of the freshmen I was most looking forward to watching this past season because there seemed to be a wild range of outcomes for him. Ultimately, I’m not sure we learned as much about his translation to the next level as I’d hoped. Because Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley dominated the ball for Arizona, we didn’t learn a ton about how well Peat’s potential mismatch ability would translate.

Also, Peat didn’t shoot well, which means we also don’t know how his off-ball game will work in the NBA unless he finds the perfect fit with a spacing center who allows him to screen and short roll consistently while occasionally sitting in the dunker spot. But to do that, he also needs to be an elite defender, and he was merely good on that end this season and doesn’t project as an NBA All-Defensive guy. The easiest way for players to get on the court in the NBA is through strong defense and shooting. Peat is not yet a standout in either area.

A name I get often for Peat’s upside is Tobias Harris, and it took Harris a couple of years to work his way into his NBA career after being a top-10 recruit entering college basketball as a strong, physical wing who could create midrange shots as a mismatch threat. Harris needed to improve his jumper and become a more useful defender. But by his third stop in Detroit, he was ready to contribute, and he has turned into a valuable, highly paid starter. My overarching theory for role players is that you can be valuable in high-leverage moments if you can do four of these five things well: dribble, pass, shoot, defend and think. Peat can dribble, pass and think at a high level for his position.
But can he be a difference-maker on defense? And can he learn to shoot? Those are my big questions.

Hollinger’s analysis: We’re in the barrel-scraping portion of the draft right now, so I can’t dunk too hard here, but I was not a big fan of Peat. He’s undersized for a big, his shooting is a major liability and I don’t think he even does the “big guy” stuff all that well. If he makes it, it’s with ballhandling, feel and defense, but I’m dubious he’ll ever be threatening enough offensively. And to trade up to make this pick, as Phoenix did, only adds to my questions. Grades: C-