The Hockey Hall of Fame will announce its class of 2026 on Monday, and you know what that means: It’s time to get mad about who’ll get in and who won’t.
That guy from your favorite team? He should be a lock! That guy from the team you hate? He’s a bum; why are we even mentioning him? That other guy who seems like a classic borderline call? You’re very, very sure you know the right answer there too, and anyone who disagrees is a big fat stupidhead.
You get the drill. Or at least I hope you do because we’re doing a Hall debate today. Just not one about this year’s class.
That’s not to say that this year doesn’t present a few opportunities to argue various cases. Patrice Bergeron is a lock, and Carey Price probably is too after losing out to the numbers game last year. That leaves two spots on the men’s side, and with a weak-ish crop of first-year eligibles other than Bergeron, that gives the committee a chance to backfill some candidates who’ve been waiting for years.
That’s cool, but honestly, I can’t do another round of Patrik Elias or Henrik Zetterberg or Curtis Joseph debate. Rod Brind’Amour remains a tough call, especially now that he’s won a Cup behind the bench (which shouldn’t matter to his case as a player but obviously does). There are plenty of arguments to be had on those names and more.
Rod Brind’Amour is the Canes’ one true superstar
Max Bultman and Shayna Goldman
Just not today. Today, we’re going to break out a gimmick we like to try every year or so: A look at the active players who are shaping up as the toughest calls down the line. By definition, none of these guys are finished products. But all of them are closer to the end than the beginning, with enough road behind them that we can at least make some educated guesses on where they’ll wind up.
We’ll look at a half-dozen players, and as always we’ll check in with our friends at Adjusted Hockey and their Hall model. Let’s dig into it.
Artemi Panarin
Why it’s a tough one: Because he’s spent most of his career as a legitimate superstar who felt like a reasonable Hall-of-Fame case, but may end up falling short of typical HHOF benchmarks.
The case for: He’s a two-time first-team All-Star, to go with two second-team honors. He’s been a Hart finalist once, and finished top-five in voting another time. He somewhat controversially beat Connor McDavid for the Calder. And he had two years with more than 70 assists, which is significant since that mark had been the record for left wingers up until recently.
The case against: Despite some very big seasons, he’s still sitting at under 1,000 points, and with some indication that he may not stick around the NHL past his two-year deal with the Kings, he might not clear it by much. And since he’s always been more of a playmaker than a sniper, he may not even get to 400 goals. For a guy who’s basically a one-dimensional offensive threat, those numbers might not be enough. (Think Claude Giroux, another borderline case we’ve covered in the past, or a more productive Jason Spezza.)
Worth remembering: Panarin didn’t arrive in the NHL until he was 24; if he’d debuted at 18 or 19 like most stars, his numbers would be well past HHOF standards by now. We didn’t hold a late start against Pavel Datsyuk, who finished with only 918 points partly because he didn’t debut until he was 23, although he was a far better two-way player.
Adjusted Hockey says: A score of 244, enough to get him above the 217 cutoff and into the “qualified” category.
Should he get in? I think so. Those four postseason All-Star picks are a strong foundation, even though left wing is the least competitive position.
Will he get in? Right now it feels dicey, leaning toward a yes. If he looks good in Los Angeles, he can nudge his case closer to a sure thing.
John Carlson
Why it’s a tough one: At 36 and looking for a new home after a brief stint in Anaheim, the finish line is in sight. And while he’s certainly done enough to deserve consideration, he’s far from a lock.
The case for: Offense. He’s the eighth-leading scorer among defensemen in the cap era, with one guy ahead of him already in (Shea Weber), two being locks (Erik Karlsson and Victor Hedman) and one pretty close (Brent Burns). He has more points than recent inductees like Duncan Keith and Zdeno Chara.
The case against: Carlson has never won a Norris, although he was runner-up once and finished in the top five two other times. He’s never been a first-team All-Star, but he’s been second-team twice. Those vote totals suggest that he’s been well-respected for years but never considered the best of the best, and that sounds about right. You don’t need a Norris to get in — Weber doesn’t have one, and neither did Scott Stevens — but you do need more than a few Norris-worthy seasons to be any kind of a lock.
Worth remembering: Carlson played 17 seasons in Washington, and as we’ve documented over the years, being closely associated with one team seems to help borderline cases.
Adjusted Hockey says: A 249, just under the defensemen cutoff of 256.
Should he get in? I don’t think he’d have my vote, but it’s a bit closer than I thought.
Will he get in? Factoring in the other defensemen who’ll be eligible soon — Karlsson, Burns, Drew Doughty, Roman Josi among them — it feels like Carlson could get lost in the crowd. But it might depend on where he lands and what he can do in his final act over the next season or two.
Brayden Point still has the runway to elevate his Hall of Fame case at just 30. (Chris Tanouye / Getty Images)
Brayden Point
Why it’s a tough one: He’s the youngest player on today’s list at only 30, so there’s more variance here than we usually work with. Beyond that, he’s a guy who everyone seems to love as a player, but whose numbers aren’t as impressive as you might expect. (At least in the regular season.)
The case for: He’s had three 90-point seasons, and finished in the top ten in Selke voting three times in his first four seasons — although weirdly, never since, so apparently he forgot how to play defense. More importantly, he’s been a crucial part of two Cup winners, leading the NHL in playoff goals with 14 in both 2020 and 2021. If you want your HHOFers to be stars who comes through at the biggest moments, Point should be your guy.
The case against: Three Hart voters listed Point fifth on their ballots in 2019, and those remain the only Hart votes he’s ever had. His highest finish in postseason All-Star voting is eighth, so he’s never really been near the “best in the league” conversation. In fact, you could argue he’s never been close to the best player on his own team, but rather a solid supporting piece for the Nikita Kucherov/Victor Hedman/Andrei Vasilevskiy core that was the driving force behind those championships.
Worth remembering: Point was on Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-off, and was one of the six players named in advance for this year’s Olympics before he had to miss the tournament due to injury. Sure, it was his own coach putting those teams together, but Point’s inclusion shows how much Jon Cooper values him. If the best coach in the league wants you on his team, that’s a good sign.
Adjusted Hockey says: A 212, which is just under the cutoff in “borderline” territory. For a guy who should still have plenty of runway ahead of him, that means he’s on pace to get to Hall territory.
Should he get in? If his career ended today, no. It won’t, of course, but we have seen guys whose production craters once they turn 30. Assuming that doesn’t happen, Point should nail down his case over the coming years.
Will he get in? Point could crack the 500-goal club, in which case he’ll be a lock. It’s also not hard to imagine him slowing down with age and injury and ending up with numbers closer to the Vincent Lecavalier zone. But the most likely scenario is that he finishes with a Hall-worthy career.
Ryan O’Reilly
Why it’s a tough one: Because he’s a two-way center, and we still don’t seem to be sure how to handle those players unless they’re a Patrice Bergeron-level star.
The case for: At 35, O’Reilly is coming off one of his best offensive seasons, and seems likely to blow past the 1,000 point mark (he’s at 898 right now). He has a Selke, plus three other years in the top five. And he arrived in St. Louis in 2018 and immediately led them to the first Cup in franchise history, winning the Conn Smythe in the process.
The case against: In 17 seasons and counting, he’s never finished in the top ten in Hart or All-Star voting. And while this is always tricky, does O’Reilly “feel” like a Hall of Famer to you? Did you bring your kids to a game and point him out because he was a special talent? Or was he merely a very good player who deserves his flowers but falls short of a Hall-of-Fame level?
Worth remembering: There’s a very good chance O’Reilly’s case ends up looking an awful lot like Rod Brind’Amour, presumably minus the coaching accolades that aren’t supposed to matter but kind of do. Their scoring totals will be similar once you adjust for era, and while Brind’Amour has two Selkes to O’Reilly’s one, O’Reilly had twice as many top-five seasons and also has that Conn Smythe.
Adjusted Hockey says: Just a 173, well short of serious consideration, let alone actual Hall status. (For what it’s worth, Adjusted Hockey likes Brind’Amour’s case better, but still has him well short.)
Should he get in? I don’t think so, and I’m guessing you don’t either. So… are we sure Brind’Amour has to get the call on Monday? OK, I promise I’ll stop bringing that up.
Will he get in? It feels like a long shot, although a few more seasons like last year could see him emerge as a late-bloomer contender.
Jaccob Slavin
Why it’s a tough one: Because if the HHOF has trouble with defensive forwards, they don’t seem to have any idea what to do with defensive defensemen. Rod Langway got in, but he had two Norris Trophies. Kevin Lowe got in, but that was with six Cup rings. Serge Savard has seven. Beyond that … it’s a short list.
The case for: Slavin’s resume now includes a Cup ring and a gold medal, which will help. And before this year’s injury-shortened season, he’d received Norris votes in nine consecutive years, peaking with a fifth-place finish in 2020.
But beyond that, he’s just a phenomenal player with a vitally important skill set that isn’t always recognized by award voters. I think stats and/or awards are a great way to measure most players, but Slavin may legitimately be one of those “just watch the games” guys.
The case against: It’s awfully tough for a defenseman to make the Hall of Fame without ever having been a Norris finalist. And of course, the offensive totals won’t be there.
Worth remembering: Slavin has two Lady Byngs, which don’t seem to move the needle for forwards but are rare enough for defensemen that they should help.
Adjusted Hockey says: Just a 169, nowhere close to Hall-worthy. But their model is based on previous inductions, so it’s going to be weird about defensive defensemen just like the real-world Hall is.
Should he get in? Based on the response to this post, some of you are convinced he’s a slam dunk. But in the reader survey, only 30 percent of you said you thought Slavin would make the cut. It’s a divisive one. Maybe he wins a Norris, at which point the argument is probably moot.
Will he get in? There’s definitely a chance. It would take a shift in the Hall’s approach, but those happen sometimes. And of course at 32, there’s still time for Slavin to bolster his case.
Mark Scheifele
Why it’s a tough one: Because he’s going to hit 1,000 points, maybe even this coming year. Given that he just turned 33 and is coming off a career-best 103-point season, it’s not hard to imagine him finishing with 1,200 or more, and it’s very possible that he finishes with more points than anyone who isn’t in the Hall.
The case for: The list of eligible players with 1,200+ points who haven’t made the Hall is basically Vince Damphousse and Bernie Nicholls, both of whom played a big chunk of their careers in the high-scoring 80s. Adjust for era, and Scheifele is on track to blow past both of them.
The case against: He’s 15 years into his career and has received just one single Hart vote – a fifth-place nod back 2019. He’s never been an All-Star, with votes in only two seasons. He’s never finished in the top 25 in Selke voting. Last year was his first 100-point season, and he’s only hit 40 goals once. He’s never played for Team Canada in a best-on-best, including a snub this year despite career-best production. And while you guys may prove me wrong in the comment section, I’m not sure I’ve ever met anyone outside of Winnipeg who thinks of Scheifele as any kind of Hall candidate.
Worth remembering: Would it be odd if he ended up being the highest-scoring player ever to not make the Hall of Fame? Maybe, but somebody has to be that guy, right?
Adjusted Hockey says: A 198, which puts him in the “Hall of Very Good” territory and well within range of getting to Hall-worthy before he’s done.
Should he get in? Barring a few more years like his last, he wouldn’t have my vote.
Will he get in? I could see him ending up as a Pierre Turgeon type of candidate, an offensive center whose case is based almost entirely on where he ranks on the all-time points list. Turgeon took a while, but he did get in.
Oh, what the heck, let’s end this by throwing one more reader poll out there …
