Copa do Mundo de 2026: as chances de cada seleção

Here you’ll find detailed estimates for how likely all 48 teams are to make the Round of 32 — by winning the group, getting second place or securing a third-place berth — or to advance deeper into the tournament. You can sort the table by any of these measures, or use it as a springboard to explore your team’s possible outcomes in detail.

Third-place forecast

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For most of group play, the table of the top eight teams currently in third place will not necessarily be predictive of which teams will eventually be there. That’s because three points — just one win in group play — will probably be enough for most teams to advance.

A third-place team with four or more points is essentially guaranteed to make the Round of 32.

With three points: about a 67 percent chance, depending on goal differential.

With two or fewer points: very likely to be eliminated.

The chart below represents our best guess of which groups are most on track to send one of their teams into the Round of 32 with a third-place berth, along with which team that is likely to be.

If your team has completed group play in third place, the best place to explore which outcomes help your team’s cause the most is on their team page, which will essentially offer a detailed, day-by-day rooting guide.

About the forecasts

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We estimate each team’s chances by simulating the entire World Cup tournament thousands of times and counting how often a team wins the group, gets second, third and so on. We estimate each team’s probability of winning a given game using a statistical forecast that is based on roster-level data. Our initial forecasts are based on a best guess of the starting lineups of all 48 squads; we’ll update these estimates if there are prominent injuries. You can find a much more detailed overview of the model behind these forecasts here.