Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Greg from the United States, who supports USMNT, Scotland and Tottenham. Good luck, Greg!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 7?
Having had to sit back and wait while everyone else got their tournament under way, Portugal came flying out of the blocks against DR Congo, seemingly eager to prove they belong with the top bracket of contenders to win it all.
A lot has been said about Portugal’s midfield three of Joao Neves, Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes. Is it the best at the tournament? Is it the best since Sergio Busquets, Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Xabi Alonso led Spain to their first World Cup win in 2010? Well, when Neves, who, at 5ft 7in, has a remarkable tendency to show up in the right position for headed goals, nodded Portugal ahead after six minutes, it seemed as though Roberto Martinez’s midfield triumvirate would justify their pre-tournament hype, and set our sample, all of whom picked Portugal to win, off to a strong start.
DR Congo drew with Portugal (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
Evidently, however, none of us saw DR Congo fighting their way back into it. Yoane Wissa, who has disappointed in a Newcastle shirt after a big-money move from Brentford last summer, put his club woes behind him to inspire the Central African nation to a 1-1 draw, and their first-ever World Cup point. In fact, Portugal should count themselves a little lucky they didn’t walk away with nothing, as Congo ended the game with a higher expected goals total (0.87) than the side led in attack by 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, who looked every inch a player who had not played at the top level for several years.
England and Croatia offered a very appetising second course, a repeat of the 2018 World Cup semi-final. Croatia, a nation of under four million people who have remarkably finished second and third in their last two World Cups, got the better of the one-time champions back then, but England are a more talented and experienced outfit now, and they showed their quality in a 4-2 win.
Stanley and the readers dropped an important point here: the ‘Algo’, the experts, and six-year-old Wilfred correctly back Thomas Tuchel’s side, calling into question Stanley’s dubious allegiances. Born and raised on English soil, you have to wonder what it takes for a whippet to get behind their national team.
Ghana and Panama rounded out Group L’s opening matchday with a hotly contested battle which could have gone either way. Such was the balance between the teams that four of our sample predicted the game would end on level terms, which was so nearly the case. But, as it transpired, Algo left with the spoils, after Coventry forward Brandon Thomas-Asante came off the bench to inspire Ghana to a late, late win, setting up 20-year-old Caleb Yirenkyi for a winner in the fifth minute of second-half added time.
And, owing to that correct prediction, Algo now leads the table outright, with everyone picking Colombia to beat Uzbekistan. Colombia’s 3-1 win over the World Cup debutants is the algorithm’s 14th correct pick of the tournament so far (at a 58 per cent accuracy), one ahead of the experts (13) in second, three more than Wilfred and the readers (11), and double poor old Stanley (seven) at the bottom.
He’ll always have that Qatar equaliser.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: either a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilf are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round-of-32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 8
Czech Republic vs South Africa, Group A, kick-off 12pm ET, 5pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. South Africa’s return to the big time after a 16-year absence proved to be a damp squib but can the Czech Republic make them pay as Mexico did?
Watch Rating: 3/5. Not much in the way of star power, but both sides will surely be going all out for their first win of the tournament.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “South Africa’s first game of the World Cup could hardly have gone much worse. After gifting a goal to Mexico forward Julian Quinones inside the opening 10 minutes, midfielder Sphephelo Sithole was sent off four minutes after the half-time whistle, leaving South Africa without their holding midfielder for the second period while they chased the game. Then, after going 2-0 down, Themba Zwane received a red card for slapping Roberto Alvarado, which will be the end of his tournament unless his team-mates can secure progression from the group stage.
“They’ll have to be much improved to get anything from the Czech Republic, who have several canny and experienced operators in the international and European game. With an average height of 178.8cm, South Africa are the second-shortest team at the tournament, while the Czech Republic are the fifth-tallest. Set pieces, therefore, could play an important part in deciding the result.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: CZECH REPUBLIC WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: SOUTH AFRICA WIN
Algo: CZECH REPUBLIC WIN
Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina, Group B, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Switzerland are strong favourites but we saw how that went against Qatar.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Doesn’t sound like a classic, but surely a fixture that the significant Bosnian diaspora in Switzerland has had circled for a long time.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Switzerland have developed a reputation as one of the most reliable and well-oiled machines on the international stage over the past decade, which is why it was so jolting that they dropped points late to Qatar in their opening game. To wrestle back control of a group they were pre-tournament favourites to win, long-time coach Murat Yakin will be planning for a return to form for Switzerland against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
“But Bosnia, who are unbeaten in nine matches, are not to be underestimated. Even without talisman Edin Dzeko, who is recovering from a shoulder injury sustained in March, Sergej Barbarez’s side took the lead against Canada and held on for a well-earned draw in a challenging atmosphere in Toronto. Bring Dzeko, who could be fit for this game, back into a spirited group and who knows what surprises they could spring.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: SWITZERLAND WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: SWITZERLAND WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: SWITZERLAND WIN
Canada vs Qatar, Group B, kick-off 6pm ET, 11pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Neither side were convincing in their opening games, though Canada should fancy their chances against a team they should beat in front of a home crowd in Vancouver.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Our advice: when a host nation is playing at a World Cup, watch it (even if they are playing against Qatar).
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “While Canada fans should justifiably be pretty disappointed with the 1-1 draw, the numbers suggest they probably should have beaten Bosnia in their opening match. They led their opposition in expected goals (xG), shots, shots on target, and had the lion’s share of possession, with much of it in Bosnia’s half.
“After earning their first World Cup point in their third attempt, the onus is on attacking star Jonathan David to deliver if they are to go one step further and record a win. Let’s see if their best player, Alphonso Davies, can recover from his hamstring injury in time to play a role.
Canada need Jonathan David to fire (Photo Agency/Getty Images)
“Qatar will take huge encouragement from their late equaliser against Switzerland. It was far from a classic performance, with Switzerland accruing 3.2 expected goals, but a point is a point, and as the first in their history at the tournament, it’s one they’ll cherish. Winning matches, however, is a different animal entirely and they’ve not had one of those since October last year.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: CANADA WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: CANADA WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: CANADA WIN
Stanley the Dog: CANADA WIN
Algo: CANADA WIN
Mexico vs South Korea, Group B, kick-off 9pm ET, 2am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Very tough to call. Mexico will surely benefit from a home crowd in Guadalajara (though they were booed by their home support for not winning by a bigger margin in their last game), but South Korea were impressive against the Czech Republic, and their attack packs a punch.
Watch Rating: 4/5. One of the more evenly-matched ties of the tournament so far. A win for Mexico will put them in a fantastic spot to win their group, making the elusive “el quinto partido” (fifth game) an ever-more likely scenario, while three points for South Korea will see them overtake Mexico in top spot.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Far be it from me to police Mexican celebrations after a convincing win against South Africa, but South Korea will surely provide a much sterner test in Guadalajara.
“Mexico got off to a flying start in their opening match. South Africa could not cope with Quinones’ pace and quality in the final third, and his link-up with striker Raul Jimenez should serve the co-hosts well as they hope to reach the quarter-finals for the first time since 1986.
“While those three points may already be enough to book their place in the round of 32, Mexico will want to top their group to build confidence and potentially set up a more straightforward route to the tournament’s latter stages. But in South Korea, Mexico have an opposition who may have more attacking talent than they do.
“Son Heung-min, South Korea’s greatest-ever player, was wasteful in front of goal in their 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, but Mexico should not expect that again. At his best, Son is a lethal finisher with both feet, and with playmakers like Lee Kang-in behind him, he is bound to find himself in good goalscoring areas again. Should Mexico keep Son and company quiet, it might be time to start getting excited about their potential this summer, but I wouldn’t be shocked if South Korea silence a noisy crowd in Guadalajara on Thursday night.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Greg: MEXICO WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: MEXICO WIN
Algo: MEXICO WIN
