Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games, but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Greg from the U.S. who supports Mexico and Chivas. Good luck!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 10?
Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane — it has been a World Cup for the No 9s and Netherlands Brian Brobbey joined the list of strikers who have scored two in the same game, netting twice against Sweden inside the first 17 minutes of a 5-1 victory.
Cody Gakpo then scored two minutes after half-time before adding another. Anthony Elanga reduced the arrears before Crysencio Summerville came off the bench to score the Netherlands’ fifth.
It was the perfect start to the day for our predictors as all five of us picked the Netherlands to win.
There was nearly a surprise result in the second game of the day as Germany left it late to complete their comeback against Ivory Coast to seal their place in the last 32. Subscriber Susu was inches away from being the only one to predict correctly, but instead there were late celebrations for the Athletic experts, Algo and Wilfred.
If Germany had been in dreamland after their 7-1 victory over Curacao, this was a reality check. Yan Diomande, who was kept relatively quiet, came alive in the build-up to Ivory Coast’s goal. Amad Diallo’s blocked effort fell to Franck Kessie, who scored to give the African side a surprise lead.
Julian Nagelsmann was forced to turn to his bench, but he has the luxury of bringing on Deniz Undav, who is quickly becoming the tournament’s super sub. Undav scored and provided two assists against Curacao, but this two-goal cameo was much more meaningful.
Undav continued his impressive performances as sub (Cole Burston / AFP via Getty Images)
Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room must have been watching some of the excellent displays from his fellow No 1s and decided it was his turn to put in the performance of his career, making 15 saves to help his side secure a 0-0 draw with Ecuador.
Ecuador finished the game having had 27 shots, 15 of which were on target, and they recorded an expected goals total of 3.1. Goals were the concern for the South American side heading into the tournament and their worst fears have been realised over the first two games.
Room’s best moment came in the opening minutes when he saved Enner Valencia’s effort from close range. It set the tone as Ecuador peppered the opposition, while Curacao offered their own counter-attacking threat giving the match an end-to-end feel.
Stanley knew something the rest of us didn’t as he was the only one to go against Ecuador.
The predictors finished the matchday the same way we started with all five predicting a Japan victory over Tunisia. None of us believed the appointment of Herve Renard, after Sabri Lamouchi was sacked, would provide the new manager bounce that Tunisia were hoping for.
It didn’t take long to prove us right as Daichi Kamada converted Keito Nakamura’s low cross after four minutes and from there it was comfortable for Japan, even without star winger Takefusa Kubo.
As for the league table, it is as you were with all five predictors correctly guessing three out of four matches – so don’t rule out Stanley yet.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: either a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard, and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilf are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 11
Spain vs Saudi Arabia, Group H, kick-off 12pm ET, 5pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. It should really be 1/5, but we have learnt our lesson after Spain’s drab performance against Cape Verde.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Luis de la Fuente may be tempted to turn to superstar Lamine Yamal from the start, after he could not inspire Spain to a win from the bench against Cape Verde, and any opportunity to watch him is one worth taking.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “There’s precedence for Spain suffering a shocking opening day result and going on to win the tournament, after doing so following a 1-0 loss to Switzerland in 2010, so perhaps the proverbial kick up the backside is exactly what they needed.
“A debate is raging in Spain on whether starting Yamal is worth the potential risk. The 18-year-old injured his left hamstring in late April, sidelining him until he came off the bench in the 71st minute against Cape Verde, with coach De la Fuente searching for inspiration to break down a stubborn defence.
“Realistically, Spain should have enough quality to make light work of Saudi Arabia even without Yamal, but their turgid performance in the 0-0 draw to Cape Verde in Atlanta on Monday leaves them needing to win to ensure they are in a strong position to top their group. Failing to beat Saudi Arabia, after such a theoretically kind start to their World Cup campaign, would be nothing short of a sporting horror show.
Lamine Yamal has had a hamstring injury (Buda Mendes/Getty Images)
“But Saudi Arabia have history when it comes to World Cup giant-killings. In 2022, they beat the eventual champions Argentina 2-1 in their opening game and played well in a 1-1 draw against Uruguay last time out. With most of their squad training and playing alongside icons of the European game in the Saudi Pro League over the past four years, Saudi Arabia are in a stronger position than ever to compete on the world stage.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: SPAIN WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: SPAIN WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SPAIN WIN
Stanley the Dog: SPAIN WIN
Algo: SPAIN WIN
Belgium vs Iran, Group G, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Belgium should register their first win of the tournament here, but Iran are not the type to go down without a fight.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Come for another electric atmosphere led by the large Iranian diaspora in Los Angeles, and stay for what should be a hotly contested battle with plenty of superstar-quality on show.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “It wasn’t until Romelu Lukaku was introduced for Charles De Ketelaere in the 1-1 draw against Egypt that we saw what Belgium are capable of this summer. De Ketelaere is a talented forward with the capacity to drop deep and connect with Kevin De Bruyne and Belgium’s talented wide forwards, but Egypt were content to sit back and allow their opponents to shuttle the ball side to side, with no one providing much threat of direct penetration.
“But almost immediately after entering the pitch, it was Lukaku’s pace and power that forced Egypt defender Mohamed Hany into turning the ball into the back of his own net. Sometimes, all it takes is a big fella up front. Even after a stop-start season impacted by injury at Napoli, you’d expect Lukaku to be drafted into the starting line-up for Belgium’s second game.
Romelu Lukaku made an instant impact off the bench for Belgium against Egypt (Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
“But Iran’s defenders will be up for the battle. Chris Wood came out on top of a physical battle in the 2-2 draw to New Zealand in their opening match, and Lukaku should provide a similar test of their capacity to deal with a big, strong No 9. They’ll offer a threat going forward too, with Mehdi Taremi an experienced and capable target for long balls and set-pieces. Still, Belgium should have too much quality for a side whose preparations continue to be affected by U.S. visa rules due to the war between the two nations.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: BELGIUM WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: BELGIUM WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: IRAN WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: BELGIUM WIN
Uruguay vs Cape Verde, Group H, kick-off 5pm ET, 11pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Surely Cape Verde can’t do it again?!
Watch Rating: 3/5. If only to see my hero, my mate, Vozinha again.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Uruguay were desperately disappointing, particularly in the first half, in their 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia. Criticism towards head coach Marcelo Bielsa has been mounting, owing to an inconsistent run of results and performances in late 2025 and 2026, and a draw against underdog opposition did little to silence the dissenting voices.
“After starting their March internationals on the bench, Darwin Nunez was picked to lead the line on Monday, a show of faith from Bielsa in the former Liverpool striker. That confidence didn’t last long, however, as Bielsa replaced him at half-time with Fluminense forward Agustin Canobbio, who looked far more comfortable and capable of executing the coach’s out-of-possession demands.
“The first half set a desperately low bar, but Uruguay improved in the second period and must start at a similar level if they are to beat a stubborn Cape Verde side, who, after their 0-0 draw against Spain, surely have their sights set on another historic day for the archipelago nation.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: URUGUAY WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: URUGUAY WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: URUGUAY WIN
Stanley the Dog: URUGUAY WIN
Algo: URUGUAY WIN
New Zealand vs Egypt, Group G, kick-off 9pm ET, 2am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Egypt have the star power in attack, but New Zealand were impressive in their opening game and should feel confident about getting a result.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Look, we know it’s not Brazil v Argentina, but if you can’t appreciate Mohamed Salah and Chris Wood at their final World Cup, then you can’t appreciate anything.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “In his 91st cap for New Zealand, Wood delivered an absolute clinic in old-fashioned striker play at the SoFi Stadium against Iran. If watching a seasoned No 9 connect and distribute for his younger, more sprightly attacking team-mates is your thing, go back and watch the highlights. Even if you watched it live, go back and watch it again — it gets better every time.
“The 34-year-old had the best season of his career in 2024-25, scoring 20 Premier League goals for the first time, but struggled to stay fit last term, making just 15 league appearances. It could benefit New Zealand, with Wood looking fresh and accomplished against Iran, as he assisted winger Elijah Just twice. Twenty years ago, a World Cup debut double may have been enough to secure a dream move to a top-five European league, but with the emergence of data, analytics and remote scouting, it might only be good enough for a new contract at his present club, Scottish side Motherwell.
“They’ll face a sterner test from Egypt, who looked comfortable against Belgium — at least until Lukaku came on. Salah was a revelation playing behind Omar Marmoush as a No 10, a departure from his seemingly undisputable spot as a right-winger, creating three chances for his team-mates, the joint-most of any player in the game. In Salah and Marmoush, Egypt have the talent to blow away a side like New Zealand, who do not face players of their level in the Oceania continental qualifying. For that reason, along with the emergence of eye-catching winger Emam Ashour, Egypt should be considered favourites here.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: EGYPT WIN
Guest subscriber Greg: EGYPT WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: EGYPT WIN
Stanley the Dog: NEW ZEALAND WIN
Algo: EGYPT WIN
