Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Mike, from the U.S., who supports USMNT, Croatia, Barcelona and LA Galaxy. Good luck!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
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What happened on Matchday 15?
The thing about a performance of a lifetime is that it can only happen once, and there were no repeat heroics from Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room, who made 15 saves in a 0-0 draw with Ecuador, as his team suffered a 2-0 defeat to the Ivory Coast.
After being rested for their defeat to Germany, Nicolas Pepe was brought back into the fold from the start and scored both goals, with his second a brilliant curling effort. One point to everyone other than Stanley, who, to save us having to clarify this at every juncture, had his first pointless outing of the tournament. No need for melancholy, the beauty of this game is you’re right back to it tomorrow, mate.
But nobody predicted Ecuador beating Germany, with the South Americans finally finding their shooting boots. Julian Nagelsmann’s side went ahead after just two minutes through Leroy Sane but Ecuador — who will be a hard to overcome in the knockouts due to the quality of their defensive players — battled back to level through Sunderland’s Nilson Angulo and went ahead in the 77th minute through Gonzalo Plata. They finish on four points and a goal difference of zero, guaranteeing qualification.
We all (apart from Stanley…) saw the Netherlands beating Tunisia, and they did so comfortably, winning 3-1. But the experts, who had a strong day, along with six-year-old Wilfred, were the only ones to pick a draw from Japan-Sweden. If you didn’t catch it, try to find a clip of Daizen Maeda’s goal. Maeda plays his club football for Celtic in Glasgow, where they’d describe it as “pure dead brilliant!”.
Stanley went with the Algo in picking the favourite for Paraguay-Australia but with both teams only needing a draw to secure their spot, the rest of us saw the eventual 0-0 result coming. There was little to remark upon from this game, with the combined expected goals coming in at just 0.82, but Australia will be pleased to qualify in second and enter the knockout stages for the third time.
Understandably, the majority of the group steered well away from Turkey, who are among the biggest disappointments of the World Cup. But against a rotated USMNT, they finally got their first goal, points and win on the board in Los Angeles — having already been eliminated.
Mauricio Pochettino made nine changed but his side battled well, going ahead after just three minutes through Auston Trusty, but star No 10 Arda Guler was imperious for Turkey, scoring in the 10th minute with a lovely goal and playing a crucial part in Kaan Ayhan’s 98th minute winner. A 3-2 win for Turkey means they leave the United States with some pride intact, and gifts the experts a much-needed point in their pursuit of the Algo.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) and a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round of 32 match-ups, current standings and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios?
Predictions for Matchday 16
Norway vs France, Group I, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. France put in a complete performance against Iraq, but Norway have looked like a real offensive threat and will offer a tougher challenge. Do either of them rest players and risk not topping the group?
Watch Rating: 5/5. Kylian Mbappe vs Erling Haaland. Box office.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “This is the battle for who tops Group I, with this the only group to have two teams on six points after two games. Will both go all out for top spot? Will the head coaches have the bigger picture in mind? What side of the draw looks more favourable?
“What is clear is that both Mbappe and Haaland will want to play to boost their bid for the Golden Boot with so many of the elite attackers in form at this tournament.
“Didier Deschamps’ side built on their impressive second half against Senegal to comfortably beat Iraq 3-0, and Mbappe continues to be the central figure that they can rely on. Few sides, if any, will be able to keep their attack quiet for 90 minutes, and one part of the quartet, Ousmane Dembele, scored his first major tournament goal at the 20th attempt, so he will have had his confidence boosted.
“France will be without their head coach for the game, however, after he flew home to attend his mother’s funeral.
“You can see why Norway were feeling good about themselves heading into the tournament. The partnership of Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard is flourishing and the rest of the team are giving them the platform to impact matches.
Premier League title rivals no more: Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard are connecting well for country (Timothy A Clary / AFP via Getty Images)
“There may be a few defensive concerns after Senegal twice threatened to come back into the game — and this could, if both teams pick their best teams, offer a real benchmark as to how far Norway could go in the competition. However, head coach Stale Solbakken told reporters that he would be making “some changes” ahead of the third game.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: FRANCE WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: FRANCE WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: FRANCE WIN
Stanley the Dog: FRANCE WIN
Algo: FRANCE WIN
Senegal vs Iraq, Group I, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Iraq have been competitive in both games, but they have made basic errors which have cost them. Senegal should have too much attacking talent.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Let’s be honest, outside of Senegal and Iraq fans, there won’t be many who choose this game over the battle for the top spot in the group between France and Norway.
This does have more on the line, though, as the winner — if there is one — would give themselves an outside chance of progression to the last 32, although Iraq would need a significant margin of victory.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Senegal’s matches have certainly been entertaining, but against France and Norway, they came away with nothing. They have been unfortunate to come up against an in-form Mbappe and Haaland, who most teams would struggle to stop.
“Senegal didn’t hit the level against Norway that they did in the first half against France. Ismaila Sarr was on a one-man mission to keep the game alive, scoring twice, but he will need more help from his team-mates.
“They have lost both matches by three goals, so the first step in this game will be making sure that they are defensively solid and then they can hope to build from there. If they are looking for an extra bit of motivation, Iraq have lost each of their five World Cup matches. Only El Salvador have played more games (six) in the competition without getting a single point.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: SENEGAL WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: SENEGAL WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SENEGAL WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: SENEGAL WIN
Uruguay vs Spain, Group H, kick-off 8pm ET, 1am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Uruguay have struggled to show much to suggest they can upset Spain, but it may depend on which Spanish side turns up.
Watch Rating: 3/5. This all could get a bit mad. It’s not in Marcelo Bielsa’s DNA to sit in and hope to defend a point, while Spain will want to make sure they top the group. You should also never pass up an opportunity to watch Lamine Yamal.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “It’s impressive what one player can do to a team and Spain looked a completely different proposition with Yamal in the side. He opened the scoring against Saudi Arabia after 10 minutes and seemed to inject confidence into his team-mates in the process. Nico Williams coming off the bench was also encouraging.
“While this was Spain’s first World Cup win since their opening game in 2022, it extended their unbeaten run in all competitions to 32 matches (23 wins and nine draws) – although they did lose the Nations League final on penalties — which is the second longest in the country’s history, so they are proving to be hard to beat.
“Uruguay’s World Cup has been quite bizarre. They were 10 minutes away from a shock opening game defeat to Saudi Arabia. Then, every time they looked competent against Cape Verde, they were the masters of their own downfall.
“Bielsa doesn’t quite seem to know what his best team is, and they don’t seem to know how to control games without engineering their own problems. Still, they need a result from this difficult game to progress.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: SPAIN WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: SPAIN WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SPAIN WIN
Stanley the Dog: URUGUAY WIN
Algo: SPAIN WIN
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia, Group H, kick-off 8pm ET, 1am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. The Cape Verde vibes push towards them winning but it would be unwise to rule out Saudi Arabia when so much is at stake for both teams.
Watch Rating: 4/5. Watching Cape Verde and their supporters’ journey during this tournament has been special, and if they can get the result they need in this match, then that is worth viewing. The quality might not be great, but the drama…
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “If somebody had told you that Cape Verde would have a chance of qualifying for the last 32 heading into the final game after playing Spain and Uruguay, you probably would have told them they were mad. Yet here we are.
“One point is likely to be enough, but they will sense an opportunity that they can get their first win in tournament history. They showed their defensive credentials in both games and became the second African side to score multiple goals from outside the box in a single World Cup match (since 1966). Another thunderbolt or two would be handy.
“Saudi Arabia may be bottom of the group, but if Spain beat Uruguay, then they can still secure second place — never mind third. They will need to pick themselves up after a confidence-sapping 4-0 defeat to Spain, but showed they do carry a threat in the 1-1 draw with Uruguay.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Marcelo: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: CAPE VERDE WIN
New Zealand vs Belgium, Group G, kick-off 11pm BT, 4am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. This was supposed to be a group Belgium would comfortably navigate but instead they’ve made things difficult for themselves, so New Zealand should back themselves to carry on that trend.
Watch Rating: 3/5. There is plenty at stake for both sides. There have been four goals in each of New Zealand’s two games and with them needing to win, that should make it an open contest.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Belgium sorely missed Jeremy Doku in their 0-0 draw with Iran, and his return to the team will add the pace and dynamism that was lacking in their attack.
“Arguably the most entertaining thing involving Belgium in this tournament so far has been head coach Rudi Garcia getting soaked by a sprinkler during the hydration break. Belgium need more from the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, who had plenty of nearly moments against Iran; their only goal so far has been an own goal. Leandro Trossard was more effective in his more natural position on the left, but that is also where Doku thrives.
“If New Zealand want to stay in the World Cup, then they are going to need Chris Wood and Elijah Just to replicate their performances from the opening game against Iran, where they offered a potent threat.
“Things were looking positive for Darren Bazeley’s side after their physicality and intensity helped them to a 1-0 lead at half-time against Egypt in their second game. They were unable to adapt to their opponents’ tactical tweaks and their defence leaked goals. They must be better in that department, and may need Max Crocombe to produce a couple of the type of saves Iran’s Alireza Beiranvand did in Belgium’s previous game.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: BELGIUM WIN
Guest subscriber Mike: BELGIUM WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: BELGIUM WIN
Stanley the Dog: BELGIUM WIN
Algo: BELGIUM WIN
Egypt vs Iran, Group G, kick-off 11pm ET, 4am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Up until Egypt’s victory over New Zealand, this had been the group of draws, and with all to play for, this makes predicting results for Group G difficult.
Watch Rating: 3/5. The match itself might not be full of quality but Group G is arguably the most interesting group heading into the final set of fixtures, so you’d best start figuring out how you are going to split-screen both because there could be plenty of movement up and down the table.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Mohamed Salah has arrived at this tournament on a mission to make it Egypt’s most successful and the rest of his team-mates have too. After a draw against Belgium, they came from behind to beat New Zealand 3-1 to make history, winning their first World Cup game.
Mohamed Salah is hoping to make more history with Egypt (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
“They struggled in the first half against a physical and intense New Zealand team, but the tactical tweaks made by Hossam Hassan worked perfectly. Salah was pushed into a centre-forward role and Egypt’s full-backs were encouraged to push further forward. That could be the blueprint they continue with against Iran.
“It would be near-impossible for Egypt not to qualify for the last-32 — although there is still the possibility of finishing first, second or third. That is also the case for Iran but their predicament is more precarious because they are on two points, so at least one point would be required to give them a chance of qualification, depending on other results in their own group and beyond.
“Iran’s resilience has been impressive throughout the tournament on and off the pitch, given the disruptions they have faced. They came from behind twice against New Zealand in their opening game, and they kept Belgium out in their second. Experience has helped: the average age of their starting XI against Belgium was 32 years and 181 days, the oldest starting XI on record (from 1966) for a World Cup match.
“Their FIFA ranking of 21 tells us they are not quite the underdogs you might think, but they will need to offer more in an attacking sense if they want to win this game and secure a place in the last 32. They were still limited even after Belgium went down to 10 men.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Mike: EGYPT WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: EGYPT WIN
Algo: EGYPT WIN
