Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Josh from the U.S., who supports USMNT and Atlanta United. Good luck, Josh!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 16?
Ousmane Dembele had to wait until his 20th appearance in major international tournaments for his first goal in one and just like London buses, they’re all now coming at once. He scored a hat-trick inside 32 minutes in France’s 4-1 victory over Norway.
In the battle for the top of Group I, the two teams took very different approaches. France went strong, while Stale Solbakken made 10 changes, including leaving Erling Haaland on the bench. In a match billed as Kylian Mbappe versus Haaland, the former provided two assists for Dembele.
Thelo Aasgaard pulled one back for Norway after France had gone 2-0 up but for most of the game, they looked like a side that had been heavily rotated and were missing their star men. Jorgen Strand Larsen should have given his side hope at 3-1 but saw his tame penalty saved by Mike Maignan before Desire Doue headed home France’s fourth late on.
Meanwhile, Senegal boosted their qualification hopes via a third-place finish with a comprehensive 5-0 victory over Iraq. They needed to win and significantly improve their goal difference. Habib Diarra headed them in front after four minutes and when Iraq defender Rebin Sulaka was sent off after 18 minutes for pulling down Sadio Mane, who would have been through on goal, Senegal had a great opportunity to do so.
Frustration was beginning to build but Ismaila Sarr continued his excellent tournament by making it 2-0 and three minutes later, substitute Pape Gueye curled in a spectacular third. His second and Senegal’s fourth was just as good. Iliman Ndiaye then added a fifth with another great strike.
Fortunately for us predictors, the right team rotated as everybody predicted a France victory and nobody went for Norway. It was nearly a full house to end Group I but our maverick dog Stanley was sniffing out an upset as he opted for Iraq, while everyone else picked Senegal.
Cape Verde’s World Cup fairytale is continuing after a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia meant they finished second in Group H after Uruguay were beaten by Spain in the other fixture. It is an incredible achievement for the World Cup debutants, one they deserved, and the scenes at full-time after watching the final seconds of the other group game on a phone were incredible.
It was a match of few chances and little quality, with Cape Verde controlling proceedings. Saudi Arabia struggled to lay a glove on their opponents despite having the opportunity to progress with a win and they lacked urgency, even when they tried to open up in the closing stages. Cape Verde will wonder how they didn’t win the game, missing chances, including an open goal in the final seconds.
It has been a tournament to forget for Uruguay goalkeeper Fernando Muslera and he allowed Alex Baena’s effort — the only shot on target for either team in the first half — to squirm through his hands after 42 minutes. The 40-year-old was substituted at half-time. It had been an even contest up until that point but that goal proved to be the difference as Spain sealed top spot, while Uruguay were eliminated. Agustin Canobbio’s red card in added time for a rash challenge summed up the tournament for Marcelo Bielsa’s side.
Stanley may have swapped fetch for catch(-up) but his against-the-grain predictions aren’t paying off. He went for Uruguay, while everyone else went for Spain, but he was correct in his prediction of a draw between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, along with us (experts), Wilfred and subscriber Mike. Long-time league leader Algo, though, might have suffered an Error 404 when seeing Cape Verde, his pick, miss that open goal in the final moments.
The drama continued into Group G as Iran’s Shoja Khalilzadeh thought he had scored a 94th-minute winner for his side against Egypt that would also have secured his team automatic qualification into the last 32 via a second-place finish in the group.
Replays showed his toes were offside, which meant Egypt survived and qualified, while Iran’s potential passage into the knockouts remains up in the air. Egypt took the lead after five minutes through Mahmoud Saber but Iran struck back less than 10 minutes later — in which time they also missed a penalty — when Ramin Rezaeian reacted quickest to a parried save from Mostafa Shobeir and fired in from close range. Even after Iran’s second goal was ruled out, they had two huge opportunities but were unable to convert.
It was equally, if not more, dramatic (in our opinion) in the predictions competition as the late goal being ruled out preserved the Athletic experts’ current streak, extending it to 10. Alongside Wilfred, we went for a draw, while everyone else predicted an Egypt win.
Belgium’s evening was much more straightforward as they dispatched New Zealand 5-1 to finish top of the group. A Leandro Trossard double followed by a Kevin De Bruyne strike gave them a 3-0 lead not long after the hour mark. Elijah Just scored an 84th-minute consolation but there was still time for Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Saelemaekers to extend Belgium’s lead.
It was a full house of correct predictions but for the first time in a long time, we have a new leader as the Athletic experts take over at the top, leapfrogging pace-setter Algo thanks to a perfect set of predictions. Wilfred also went six for six and is only two points behind. It’s all to play for as we head into the final set of group-stage fixtures.
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: either a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilf are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round-of-32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 17
Panama vs England, Group L, kick-off 5pm ET, 10pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. England should win, but Panama have lost both of their matches 1-0, showing the ability to frustrate.
Watch Rating: 3/5. Panama are out, but England still need to win to secure top spot. This is likely to be defence versus attack for large portions.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “England were unable to break down a deep and disciplined Ghana defence.
“Lessons have to be learned as they were unable to adapt to Ghana’s setup and showed little cutting edge. England had 78.8 per cent possession — their highest figure in a World Cup match on record (since 1966), and also the most by any side who failed to score in a match in the competition.
“This should give Thomas Tuchel the opportunity to look at alternative options from the start, particularly in the wide areas. Noni Madueke and Anthony Gordon struggled against Ghana, so it could be time to start Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford. They are set to be without right-back Reece James, who is nursing a hamstring injury.
Our England reporter Jack Pitt-Brooke agrees: ‘Tuchel and Kane both tried to strike a positive message after the 0-0 draw with Ghana, both emphasising that England were in a good position in Group L and that tournament football is difficult. But I expect to see a few changes against Panama, maybe with Rashford and Saka coming in for their first starts of the tournament. And I expect England to do the business, so I’m going for a 3-0 win.’
“Panama have nothing to lose and have the opportunity to upset one of the tournament favourites. They have shown defensive resilience in matches so far, conceding late in both, but they will need to show more attacking quality.
“Ghana had moments of success on the counter-attack against England and should have been awarded a penalty. It’s the blueprint Panama need to follow if they want to give themselves a chance of scoring their first goal of the tournament.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: ENGLAND WIN
Guest subscriber Josh: ENGLAND WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: ENGLAND WIN
Stanley the Dog: ENGLAND WIN
Algo: ENGLAND WIN
Croatia vs Ghana, Group L, kick-off 5pm ET, 10pm BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. With the top three places in the group up for grabs, this could go either way.
Watch Rating: 3/5. The only concern is that both approach it knowing that a point takes them into the last 32.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “This is not the Croatia of the past two World Cups, where they reached the final and semi-final. They scored two excellent goals against England but faded in the second half. Against Panama, they controlled possession but managed fewer shots than their opponents.
“Crucially, they did pick up three points, with Ante Budimir coming off the bench to score the winner. Once again, they showed their experience in grinding out a result. It’s their trademark in these tournaments and you expect them to do enough to secure passage into the last 32.
“Will Croatia be the first team to score against Ghana? It has been the foundation that has put them in such a strong position. Carlos Queiroz has a decision to make in goal, with first-choice Lawrence Ati-Zigi returning from injury. His replacement Benjamin Asare performed well against England.
“The challenge is for them to offer more in possession. They managed only two shots against England — although they were unfortunate not to be awarded a penalty — after managing only seven shots against Panama. Antonie Semenyo will again be who they look towards for inspiration, but he needs support.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Josh: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: GHANA WIN
Algo: CROATIA WIN
Colombia vs Portugal, Group K, kick-off 7:30pm ET, 12:30am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. Two quality teams aiming to top their group, so all possible outcomes apply.
Watch Rating: 5/5. Portugal were much improved against Uzbekistan. This should be an entertaining watch.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “In our last Portugal preview, we said Roberto Martinez had to solve his Cristiano Ronaldo problem. His answer was excellent as Ronaldo scored two in their 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan.
“Portugal were much improved from their toothless display against DR Congo as they played with cohesion, tempo and fluidity. Colombia will be a much tougher proposition, and this should offer a more comprehensive insight into Portugal out of possession as they have been largely unchallenged so far.
“Colombia have made the perfect start, with Bayern Munich’s Luis Diaz leading the way and Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz in goalscoring form from right-back, netting two goals in two games.
“Nestor Lorenzo’s side had to remain patient against a resilient DR Congo before they found a way through 14 minutes from time. They will want to be more clinical because chances will not be as frequent.
“Whoever finishes top of the group will face one of the third-placed teams from Group D, E, I, J or L, while the runner-up will face the team who finishes second in Group L, which could be any of England, Ghana or Croatia — given the fixtures it is more likely to be one of the last two.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DRAW
Guest subscriber Josh: COLOMBIA WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: PORTUGAL WIN
Democratic Republic of Congo vs Uzbekistan, Group K, 7:30pm ET, 12:30am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. These teams have had to defend a lot, so we will find out more about how both play against similar opponents.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Competing with Colombia and Portugal makes this a difficult sell. Both managers could take the shackles off as both teams need a win to give themselves a chance of qualifying.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “DR Congo flexed their defensive muscles to limit Portugal, and while they were not as solid against Colombia, they showed a resilience to stay in the game. Their efforts have only earned them one point, so a win is required for them to progress.
“Do they alter their approach to be more offensive to try to provide more opportunities for Yoane Wissa and Cedric Bakambu, or will they continue with their current plan of nullifying opponents and look to hit them on the counter-attack? They will need to force the issue at some point.
“Only a comprehensive victory for Uzbekistan, given the damage the 5-0 defeat by Portugal did to their goal difference and belief, would give them an outside chance of qualifying for the last 32.
“After a performance against Colombia during which they grew into the game, they were given a reality check by Portugal. Fabio Cannavaro will have been disappointed by his team’s defensive display, especially given it has been an area of focus, and that must improve if they are to earn their first World Cup point.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: DR CONGO WIN
Guest subscriber Josh: DR CONGO WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DR CONGO WIN
Stanley the Dog: UZBEKISTAN WIN
Algo: DR CONGO WIN
Jordan vs Argentina, Group J, kick-off 10pm ET, 3am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Group winners Argentina have the luxury of being able to rotate, but even a much-changed side should have enough to see off already eliminated Jordan. That said, their opponents will look to capitalise on any rust or a lack of cohesion.
Watch Rating: 5/5. If Lionel Messi is playing, that is. If he is rested, then we have to drop it to one as there is nothing riding on this game.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Lionel Scaloni could stick with his preferred starting XI to maintain rhythm and momentum, or he could choose to rest players to avoid any unnecessary injuries and suspensions.
“Messi, who has been central to everything Argentina have done, might be thinking about the Golden Boot race too, with some of his main competitors likely to play in the third group game.
“Despite being one of the lowest-ranked nations in the competition, Jordan have been competitive in their two matches and, led by reliable goalscorer Ali Olwan, they have been able to worry their opposition. This is a free hit, so why not try to end your tournament with a bang?
“They will need to tidy up their set-piece defending, as three of the five goals they have conceded have come from corners.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: ARGENTINA WIN
Guest subscriber Josh: ARGENTINA WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: ARGENTINA WIN
Stanley the Dog: JORDAN WIN
Algo: ARGENTINA WIN
Algeria vs Austria, Group J, kick-off 10pm ET, 3am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. All three results are on the table. Austria are favourites but a draw would be fine for both.
Watch Rating: 3/5. The fact that a draw is good enough for both means they may approach this cautiously.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Who wants to play Spain in the last 32? That’s likely to be the prize for whoever finishes second in Group J.
“Both teams won against Jordan but neither found it easy. Austria were level until 15 minutes remaining and a second-half comeback by Algeria sealed victory.
“There are a number of permutations, more so for Algeria, who currently sit in third place. A win or a draw would take them through to the last 32, yet defeat by two or more goals would likely end their tournament due to goal difference. Austria’s goal difference is zero, so they would have to suffer a heavy defeat of four or more goals to be in jeopardy.
“A strong finish to the group stages would be ideal for both to boost confidence heading into the knockout stages.
“There is some history and bad blood between these two sides relating to final group games. In the 1982 World Cup in Spain, Austria embraced a 1-0 loss to West Germany, a result that took both teams through and simultaneously eliminated Algeria. It was labelled the ‘Disgrace of Gijon’. How ironic that the opponents for whoever finishes second is likely to be Spain.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: AUSTRIA WIN
Guest subscriber Josh: AUSTRIA WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: AUSTRIA WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: AUSTRIA WIN
